Dubai Real Estate Shows Resilience in Q1 2026 Amid a Short Term Market Adjustment

Dubai’s property market has seen a short-term adjustment over the past four weeks, as regional geopolitical tensions have influenced buyer sentiment and transaction volumes, according to Allsopp & Allsopp.

Transaction activity slowed across March, with a clear shift in behaviour. Following a strong start to the year, the market has moved into a more cautious, “wait and watch” phase. Despite this, total sales value across commercial and residential sectors reached AED 172 billion in quarter one, highlighting underlying strength.

Quarter-on-quarter, the average sales price increased by 14% to AED 3.7M, while year-on-year prices are up 19%, reinforcing continued upward pressure despite short-term uncertainty.

Total sales volume and value softened, with volumes down 18% and value down 6%. However, year-on-year performance remains positive, with quarter one 2026 delivering 24% higher sales value and a slight increase in volume compared to quarter one 2025.

The off-plan market saw a decline, with value down 15% and volume down 22%, partly due to fewer launches compared to 2025. Despite this, off-plan still accounts for 67% of transactions, compared to 33% in the secondary market, showing continued investor demand.

In contrast, the secondary market has shown resilience, with average prices up 23% quarter-on-quarter and total sales value increasing by 10%, reflecting confidence in ready properties.

Villas and townhouses remain a standout, with average prices rising 43% year-on-year to AED 7.5M, alongside increases in both volume and value. Apartments, however, saw a short-term correction, with value down 22% and volume down 25%, while prices remained stable with a 3% increase, indicating rebalancing rather than decline.

Overall, the market has paused and adjusted rather than declined, with demand, pricing, and key segments continuing to demonstrate resilience.